ADAPTIVE SALES FORECASTING MODELS FOR SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS GROWTH: A MULTI-MODEL FRAMEWORK APPROACH
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.66635/dhhykp52Keywords:
Sales Forecasting, Adaptive Modelling, Marketing Analytics, Sales Growth, Behavioral Economics, Quantitative MarketingAbstract
Sales forecasting plays a critical role in entrepreneurial decision-making, strategic planning, and sustainable business growth. However, existing forecasting approaches often fail to integrate behavioural, environmental, and strategic dimensions within a unified adaptive framework. This study develops an adaptive multi-model sales forecasting framework designed to support entrepreneurial sustainability across dynamic market conditions. The proposed framework integrates five progressively structured forecasting models ranging from basic driver-based approaches to advanced multiplicative and strategic models.
The study adopts a conceptual-analytical methodology supported by scenario-based simulations and a pilot empirical illustration conducted in Kolkata, India (n = 28), covering heterogeneous income segments. The framework operationalises key entrepreneurial and market variables including internal growth capability, market expansion, pricing behaviour, customer retention, distribution reach, and environmental uncertainty. The findings demonstrate that forecasting effectiveness varies significantly across contextual and strategic conditions, indicating that universality in forecasting is adaptive rather than formula-based.
A major contribution of the study is the introduction of the Adaptive Sales Modelling Principle, which proposes that model selection should align with environmental complexity, data availability, and strategic intent. The paper further contributes to entrepreneurship and sustainability literature by integrating behavioural economics, strategic management, and quantitative forecasting within a flexible decision-support framework.
The results suggest that sustainable entrepreneurial growth depends not only on forecasting accuracy but also on the strategic adaptability of forecasting structures to evolving market realities. The framework offers practical implications for entrepreneurs, business managers, and strategic planners operating under uncertain and rapidly changing business environments.
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